Dairy Profit Wednesday, March 10
An (almost) daily recap of dairy information:
March 10, 2010
California Class 1 lower
California Class I prices fell for the third straight month. April prices are $14.37/cwt. in the North and $14.64/cwt. in the South, both down $2.07 from March, but are $2.79 more than April 2009. The federal order Class I base price is announced March 19.
Dairy outlook
USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates report raised anticipated 2010 milk production to be fractionally higher than 2009, because cow slaughter is relatively low and January milk cow numbers were higher than expected. Dairy exports on both a fat and skim-solids basis for 2010 are lowered, due to slightly weaker-than-expected international demand during the early part of the year.
Cheese prices are reduced as higher stocks are expected to pressure prices. Butter price forecasts are raised slightly on the strength of current demand although higher milk supplies and weaker cheese prices may encourage higher butter production pressuring prices later in the year.
The Class III price is reduced as weaker cheese prices more than outweigh gains in whey prices. The Class IV price forecast is lowered reflecting weaker nonfat dry milk prices, which more than offset higher butter prices. The all milk price for 2010 is forecast at $15.55-$16.15/cwt.
Crop update
Due to the delayed 2009 harvest, USDA provided an update of the 2009 corn and soybean crops, reducing both. U.S. corn production is estimated at 13.1 billion bushels, down fractionally from the previous estimate. The projected 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price for corn is lowered 20¢ on the top end of the range, to $3.45-$3.75 per bushel. U.S. soybean production is estimated at 3.36 billion bushels, down slightly. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2009/10 is narrowed to $8.95-$9.95/bushel. The soybean meal price is projected at $280-$310/ton.
Closing on Wednesday, March 10:
Cheddar blocks – unchanged at $1.2750/lb.
Cheddar barrels – unchanged at $1.2500/lb.
Butter – up 0.5¢, to $1.4850/lb.
Extra Grade nonfat dry milk – unchanged, at $1.12/lb.
Grade A nonfat dry milk – unchanged at $1.11/lb.
Class III milk futures prices were mixed in a narrow range.
Monsanto seeks nominations for America’s Farmers Mom of the Year
Monsanto’s “America’s Farmers Mom of the Year” is a new nationwide program tied to Mother’s Day, recognizing the contributions farm moms bring to their families and their communities. Five regional winners will be selected, based on their contributions to family, farm and community, with each winning a $5,000 cash prize. One of the five regional winners will then be selected the week before Mother’s Day as the America’s Farmers Mom of the Year, based on online voting, and will receive an additional $2,500 prize. Complete eligibility requirements and official rules can be obtained online at www.AmericasFarmers.com or by calling 1-866-735-5267.
DAIRYLINE RADIO: Thursday
National Milk Producers Federation’s final Import Watch for 2009 reflects the economic situation of the U.S. and the world, according to Jim Tillison. Imports of all dairy products except butter and cheddar cheese were down from a year ago. Butter imports were up slightly from 2008 and 2007, he said, but comparable to 2005 and 2006.
The Import Watch monitors four types of cheese, and cheddar showed the only increase from 2008. Imports of American, Italian, and Goya cheeses were all down.
Perhaps the most significant figure regards milk protein concentrate (MPC) and similar products, Tillison said. MPC, casein and casinates were down significantly in 2009 from 2008, and were at their lowest levels in the last five years. Listen to the conversation with DairyLine’s Lee Mielke.
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Dave Natzke, Editor