DairyBusiness

An (almost) daily recap of dairy information:

Nov. 18, 2009

October milk production down

October milk production in the 23 major dairy states totaled 14.3 billion lbs., down 1.1% from October 2008. September revised production, at 14.0 billion lbs., was down 0.5% from September 2008.  The September revision represented an increase of 16 million lbs. or 0.1% from last month’s preliminary production estimate.

The number of milk cows in the 23 major states was 8.32 million head, 196,000 head less than October 2008, and 22,000 head less than September 2009. Production per cow in those states averaged 1,721 lbs. for October, 21 lbs. more than October 2008.

Total U.S. October milk production was estimated at 15.44 billion lbs., down 1.1% from October 2008. Cow numbers were estimated at 9.098 million head, down 136,000 head from a year earlier.  For more information, visit www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/mkpr1109.pdf.

Dairy trade

September dairy trade estimates closed out fiscal year 2009 (October 2008-September 2009), ending the year on a slightly positive note, but it was a dismal year compared to record-setting FY ’08. FY ’09 exports totaled $2.335 billion, down 43% from the previous FY total of $4.097 billion. FY imports were down 11%: $2.748 billion in FY ’09, compared to $3.104 bilion in ’08.  The trade deficit for FY ’09 was estimated at $413 million, compared to a $993 million trade surplus in FY ’08.

Fluid sales

Dairy Market News reported U.S. packaged sales of fluid milk totaled about 4.6 billion lbs. in September 2009, 0.1% less than September 2008. However, when adjusted for calendar composition, September 2009 sales were up 1.1% from September 2008. On an individual product basis, after adjusting for calendar composition, sales of organic whole milk, 2%, 1%, flavored 2%, organic 2% and buttermilk increased from September 2008, while sales of whole milk, flavored whole milk, and skim milk decreased from a year earlier.

Wednesday’s CME cash dairy product prices:

Cheddar blocks: unchanged, at $1.5825/lb.

Cheddar barrels: unchanged, at $1.4425/lb.

Butter – unchanged, at $1.5250/lb.

Extra Grade nonfat dry milk – unchanged, at $1.40/lb.

Grade A nonfat dry milk – unchanged, at $1.40/lb.

Class III milk futures were slightly lower.

Corn and soybean futures prices were lower; soybean meal futures prices were higher in nearby months, but lower thereafter.

For today’s market activities on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade, visit http://www.dairybusiness.com/dairybusiness_markets.php.

Thursday on DairyLine Radio

Independent economic analysis of the Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) program shows a return on investment of $1.54/cwt. so far in 2009, according to National Milk Producers Federation’s Chris Galen. NMPF commissioned the analysis, completed by Scott Brown, professor of ag economics at the University of Missouri. The total does not include the impact of the  CWT herd retirement program currently underway. The cumulative impact of CWT’s export program and herd retirement has added $2.4 billion to farm level milk receipts this year, a year where dairy income is expected to be down more than $10 billion because of the global recession. For more details, and to listen to the conversation with DairyLine’s Lee Mielke, visit www.dairyline.com.

For a sample copy of Dairy Profit Weekly, or subscription information, visit www.dairyprofit.com or phone: 800-334-1904, ext. 244.

Dave Natzke, Editor